New death-risk test is not a baby boomer’s parlor game

By LINDSEY TANNER
The Associated Press

 
What’s your risk of death in next 4 years
CHICAGO – If you’re over 50, this test developed by researchers at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center attempts to calculate your risk of death within four years. Of course, it’s not foolproof, but the researchers say it can give you a rough idea of your survival chances. The test appears in Wednesday’s Journal of the American Medical Association:

1. Age: 60-64 years old - 1 point; 65-69 - 2 points; 70-74 - 3 points; 75-79 - 4 points; 80-84 - 5 points; 85 and older - 7 points.

2. Male or Female: Male - 2 points.

3. Body-Mass Index: Less than 25 (normal weight or less) - 1 point. (Calculate by multiplying height in inches times height in inches; then divide weight in pounds by that total; then multiply the total by 703.)

4. Diabetes: 2 points.

5. Cancer (excluding minor skin cancers): 2 points.

6. Chronic lung disease that limits activities or requires oxygen use at home: 2 points.

7. Congestive heart failure: 2 points.

8. Cigarette smoking in the past week: 2 points.

9. Difficulty bathing/showering because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

10. Difficulty managing money, paying bills, keeping track of expenses because of a health or memory problem: 2 points.

11. Difficulty walking several blocks because of a health problem: 2 points.

12. Difficulty pushing or pulling large objects like a living room chair because of a health problem: 1 point.

Score:

• 0 to 5 points - less than a 4 percent risk of dying

• 6-9 points - 15 percent risk

• 10-13 points - 42 percent risk

• 14 or more points - 64 percent risk.

Note: Researchers say the 1-point penalty for having a body-mass index under 25 (normal weight or less) is based on findings that being underweight is a health risk for elderly people.

CHICAGO – It sounds like a perfect parlor game for baby boomers suddenly confronting their own mortality: What are your chances of dying within four years?

Researchers have come up with 12 risk factors to try to answer that for people over age 50.

This is one game where you want a low score. Zero to 5 points says your risk of dying in four years is less than 4 percent. With 14 points, your risk rises to 64 percent.

Just being male gives you 2 points. So does having diabetes, being a smoker, and getting pooped trying to walk several blocks.

Points accrue with each four-year increment after age 60.

The test doesn’t ask what you eat, but it does ask if you can push a living room chair across the floor.

The quiz is designed “to try to help doctors and families get a firmer sense for what the future may hold,” to help plan health care accordingly, says lead author Dr. Sei Lee, a geriatrics researcher at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center, who helped develop it.

This test is roughly 81 percent accurate and can give older people a reasonable idea of their survival chances, Lee and his colleagues say.

Of course, it isn’t foolproof. Other experts note it ignores family history and it’s much less meaningful for those at the young end of the spectrum.

“ Even if somebody looks at their numbers and finds they have a 60 percent risk of death, there could be other mitigating factors,” said co-author and VA researcher Dr. Kenneth Covinsky.

The test is based on data involving 11,701 Americans over 50 who took part in a national health survey in 1998. Funded by a grant from the National Institute on Aging, the researchers analyzed participants’ outcomes during a four-year follow-up. They based their death-risk survey on the health characteristics that seemed to predict death within four years.

Their report appears in Wednesday’s Journal of the American Medical Association.

Dr. Donald Jurivich, geriatrics chief at the University of Illinois at Chicago, took the test and got a nice low score. Jurivich is 52. He said he’d feel better about his score if both his parents hadn’t died prematurely.

He praised the survey for measuring people’s ability to function – such as being able to move a piece of furniture or keep track of expenses – signs that can be more telling than other health factors.

Willie Hood Jr., 74, a patient of Jurivich’s, pooh-poohed the test “because I don’t know when I’m going to die and nobody else” does either.”